Cautiously Optimistic Investor Sentiment Prevails as Intact Secular Growth Trends and Constructive Views on Order Rates Support Firm Setup in 2026; Policy Impact Serves as a Governor
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Survey Finds Investor Headiness for Growth Persists with Expectations Intact for 2026 Expansion; Frothy Valuations, Policy Impact, Geopolitics, and AI Bubble Curb Enthusiasm Somewhat
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This Week in Earnings – Q1'24
U.S. Banks in our Sector Beat
This earnings season, Banks highlighted the enduring benefits of scale and deposit stickiness in an economy buoyed by low unemployment and persistent consumer spending.
Not surprisingly, market enthusiasm through the first few months of the year bolstered capital markets segment performance, a notable bright spot for banks. Moreover, sentiment toward the M&A environment was generally optimistic, reflecting an economy poised for recovery from previous lows. In fact, the data points to positive momentum, as the total deal value of M&A in the U.S. for the first quarter rose 39% year-over-year.
Key Themes
- Macro: Executives Express Optimism Amid a “Constructive Environment” and a “Resilient” U.S. Economy; the Majority Expect Two or Three Rate Cuts this Year versus the Fed’s Latest Three-Cut Forecast
- Consumer Health: Despite Continued Net Charge Offs, Execs Point to Consumer Resilience Amid a Strong Labor Market and Continual Wage Growth
- M&A: In the “Early Stages of Reopening” as Pent-up Deal Demand Appears to be Bubbling to the Surface; Still, Regulatory Concerns are Top of Mind
- Loan Growth: Growth Remains Muted as Fed Rate Pause and Decreased Inventory Build Contribute to Weakened Demand
- Commercial Real Estate (CRE): Banks Anticipate Further “Uneven” and “Episodic” Losses in Coming Quarters
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