The Big So What™

With 53% of the S&P 500 reporting earnings to date, 78% have reported a positive EPS surprise, above the 1-year average of 73%. Companies are reporting earnings 7.7% above consensus estimates, well above the 1-year average of (+2.8%) but below the 5-year average (+8.4%).

We analyzed annual revenue and EPS guidance provided by 30 industrial companies with market caps greater than $500M that have reported to date. Below are our findings.

Corporates are playing to the under promise and over deliver agenda this year, a good strategy amid continued uncertainty:

• EPS: 56% maintained, 41% raised, 3% lowered
• Revenue: 68% maintained, 24% raised, 8% lowered

Further, we analyzed the earnings calls for this group and the broader industrial universe to identify key themes.

• Macro Outlook: All Eyes on the Consumer as Most Expect Turbulence in 2023, Particularly in Residential and Freight; Executives Lean on Secular Growth Messaging as Stimulus Tailwinds Begin to Materialize
• Backlog & Order Rates: Backlogs Appear Largely Healthy; Analysts Tune Into Book-to-Bill to Decode Supply and Demand, Questioning Whether It’s Backlog Digestion or More Indicative of a Broader Demand Slowdown
• Supply Chain: Constraints Largely Easing and Focus Centers on Strengthening, Including Continued Mentions of Reshoring
• Capital Allocation: Growth Investments Remain En Vogue While Questions Focus on M&A Appetite Given Well-Capitalized Balance Sheets
• Margins: Persistent Elevated Inflation and Lower Volume Mentions Driving Continued Pricing and Expense Management Actions to Offset Pressures
• Regional Spotlight: China – Executive Calculus Equates Reopening with Recovery; While Some Are Not Seeing Benefits Yet, Positive on the Balance of the Year and Beyond