Amid “Mixed Bag”, Stable Q3’25 Industrial Performance Expected with Pockets of Strength; Cautious Optimism Continues to Build for a Stronger, More Broad-based Growth Setup in 2026
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Survey Finds Positive Investor Sentiment Continues to Build as Heightened Expectations for Higher Growth Contend with Anticipated Tariff Turbulence
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This Week in Earnings – Q1'23
Industrials in our Sector Beat
With 53% of the S&P 500 reporting earnings to date, 78% have reported a positive EPS surprise, above the 1-year average of 73%. Companies are reporting earnings 7.7% above consensus estimates, well above the 1-year average of (+2.8%) but below the 5-year average (+8.4%).
We analyzed annual revenue and EPS guidance provided by 30 industrial companies with market caps greater than $500M that have reported to date. Corporates are playing to the under promise and over deliver agenda this year, a good strategy amid continued uncertainty:
- EPS: 56% maintained, 41% raised, 3% lowered
- Revenue: 68% maintained, 24% raised, 8% lowered
Key Themes
- Macro Outlook: All Eyes on the Consumer as Most Expect Turbulence in 2023, Particularly in Residential and Freight; Executives Lean on Secular Growth Messaging as Stimulus Tailwinds Begin to Materialize
- Backlog & Order Rates: Backlogs Appear Largely Healthy; Analysts Tune Into Book-to-Bill to Decode Supply and Demand, Questioning Whether It’s Backlog Digestion or More Indicative of a Broader Demand Slowdown
- Supply Chain: Constraints Largely Easing and Focus Centers on Strengthening, Including Continued Mentions of Reshoring
- Capital Allocation: Growth Investments Remain En Vogue While Questions Focus on M&A Appetite Given Well-Capitalized Balance Sheets
- Margins: Persistent Elevated Inflation and Lower Volume Mentions Driving Continued Pricing and Expense Management Actions to Offset Pressures
- Regional Spotlight: China – Executive Calculus Equates Reopening with Recovery; While Some Are Not Seeing Benefits Yet, Positive on the Balance of the Year and Beyon
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