As we wrap up our coverage of Q2’24 earnings season, it’s clear that commentary remains heavily influenced by macro factors like the election, the Fed’s actions, geopolitical risks, and shifting consumer behavior.
Despite increased concerns over the consumer, the political landscape, and the economy, surveyed financial professionals largely expected Q2’24 results to be in line with both last quarter and relative to consensus, and annual guides to be maintained.
Rather than counting on resurgent volumes, executives are squarely focused on controlling what they can control, highlighting expense management and productivity initiatives — and, in some cases, headcount reduction — that are starting to bear fruit and drive margin expansion.
The Materials sector, a barometer for the broader economy, continues to reflect the complexities and challenges of the current economic landscape. While last quarter indicated a move towards slow but steady stabilization with hopes of a back-half recovery, commentary in Q2 earnings suggests many of the persistent challenges observed over the past few quarters have remained just that — persistent.
Executive mentions of consumer softness and a cautious discretionary spending environment remain prevalent this earnings season, a continuation of the trend exhibited last quarter.
Peak earnings season shaped out to be a dynamic one, and today’s jobs data has added to investor concerns we identified in our most recent Q2’24 Inside The Buy-Side® Earnings Primer® publication. As a result, the S&P 500 saw its worst decline today since 2022, and the Fed-funds futures now sees a 71.5% chance of a 50 basis point cut in September.
Earnings across the sector have been mixed, with commentary reflecting a cautious tone due to more pronounced macro uncertainty and various idiosyncratic challenges.
This quarter, companies across sectors are feeling very similar trends: slowing top lines; customer decisions being pushed out; an anemic consumer; labor issues, including wage inflation, unionization, and inefficiency; and continued or emerging supply chain issues.
This earnings season, U.S. Banks are reporting largely solid results relative to Street expectations with most posting Q2 beats on the top- and bottom-line.
While overall U.S. Bank performances were largely in the black, executives refrained from declaring a definitive turnaround. Many injected a sense of caution in their macroeconomic commentaries, commensurate with our observations from our prior Commencing the Quarter Thought Leadership report. Still, increased confidence amid continued capital market strength and percolating M&A deal activity is notable.
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