Research & Insights
Thought Leaders at the Forefront of Best Practice
Corbin Analytics
Issues of Earnings Primer®
Years of Research
Interviews with
Institutional Investors
Companies Globally
Industries
For nearly two decades, we have surveyed institutional investors and analysts globally on the equity markets, world economy, and business climate. At the start of every earnings season, we publish our flagship Inside The Buy-Side® research – Earnings Primer® and Industrial Sentiment Survey® – which capture real-time investor sentiment and trends.
At the nexus of investors and corporates, we are thought leaders and deliver data-driven research and insights that help our clients navigate the changing landscape, build credibility with investors, and outperform over time.
“Time and time again, our research has conclusively linked transparency with management credibility, and the power of transparency is never more important than during times of radical uncertainty and market distress. Massive market swings, extreme volatility, and minute-by-minute tariff headline changes have dealt public company management teams yet another set of challenges to navigate. Executives who lean into educating investors on their company in the context of the current framework and long-term fundamentals, while remaining thoughtful about near-term uncertainty, will serve to build trust. Importantly, investors are not expecting companies to be prescriptive, conclusive, or have all the answers; rather, they are seeking executives’ best efforts to help them understand actual and highly likely impacts and strategies to mitigate risk. While the 90-day reprieve on reciprocal tariffs excluding China is welcomed, it serves to extend uncertainty in the increasingly psychologically unsafe environment in which we’re currently operating. Those companies that will emerge stronger from this period will demonstrate the ability to control the controllable, execute with agility in the near term while not losing sight of advancing the long-term strategy, communicate honestly and straightforwardly, and bring investors along with them. Proactive disclosure of the impacts to cost, revenue, and/or margins, tariff mitigation strategies, including pricing actions and cost savings to offset impacts, downturn playbooks, and scenario analyses are proven communication strategies that build credibility with investors.”
“Following the election-cycle overhang and the bull-bear standoff identified in Q3, our latest survey highlights a spike in investor optimism. Recession apprehension has diminished significantly, GDP projections have warmed, and ‘growth mode’ has emerged as a dominant theme, with growth taking priority over margins and reinvestment dethroning debt paydown as the top preferred use of cash after 10 consecutive quarters. However, uncertainties — including policy shifts linked to tariffs and renewed inflationary concerns — are top of mind and keeping a lid on unbridled enthusiasm. Amid lofty expectations for revenue and EPS for both Q4 results and annual guides, our channel checks suggest demand is not yet tracking with sentiment, putting companies in a potential pickle as they look to issue annual guides in the coming weeks and months. While animal spirits are aswirl, we recommend conservatism when it comes to 2025 outlooks, including leveraging wider ranges to account for uncertainty and volatility amid the administration changeover. For this earnings season, investors remain keyed into growth and demand, as well as margins and expense management, while capital allocation and tariffs both see boosts in interest.”
“Following Q2 earnings season, which saw a higher-than-expected number of EPS misses and downwardly revised guides, our survey this quarter reveals heightened concerns around growth and earnings with a greater emphasis on margins. Channel checks indicate continued subdued demand in Q3 amid the looming U.S. Election and an increasingly strapped consumer, while AI, infrastructure stimulus, and cooling inflation offer support. While surveyed investors anticipate a choppy Q3 with more bracing for EPS misses and another round of lowered guides, continued election-induced paralysis and recent events, including the short-lived but stymying port strike, devastation caused by Hurricanes Helene and Milton, and Middle East war escalation are likely to factor into Q4 outlooks. Despite the two largest global economies getting a shot in the arm with the U.S. Fed’s 50 bps rate cut and China’s stimulus efforts, there is an increasing level of pessimism as we round out 2024. As investors sift through the increasingly turbulent landscape, focus remains on demand and order rates, expense management, and disinflation trends while interest in corporate downturn playbooks spikes.”
“With earnings season about to commence, our survey finds sentiment has moderated from the overly zealous bullish stance captured over the prior two quarters, with investors characterizing their view as more neutral overall. The frothy growth expectations abundant in the beginning of the year are fizzling amid renewed concerns about a potential U.S. recession and escalating political uncertainty, both in the U.S. and globally, and a beleaguered consumer. Despite tempering optimism, expectations for Q2’24 results and annual outlooks largely remain intact, underscoring a potential underappreciation for known and emerging headwinds, including the impacts of the higher interest rate environment, the pall cast on spending amid an election year, an increasingly challenged pricing environment, and the resurgence of supply chain issues. In addition to these, leading topics for executives to address on upcoming earnings calls include profitability and expense management, growth, and, of growing importance this quarter, capex and investment priorities. As companies mull over guidance strategy, consideration should be given to derisking the potential for earnings misses through proactive expectations management. With elevated consensus estimates and the ‘back-half loaded’ narrative showing cracks, it’s important to keep in mind the compounding effects of the higher interest rate environment, slowing growth, broad-based cost-cutting efforts, and moderating capex brought on by increasing uncertainty over the U.S. election.”
“With earnings season about to commence, our survey finds increasing optimism amongst the investment community amid the growing belief that we bottomed in 2023 and that, despite sticky inflation and a higher-for-longer interest rate environment, 2024 will offer year-over-year improvement. Supporting expanding positive sentiment is increased executive confidence, a U.S. election year, and durable secular growth trends, including continued government spending and the proliferation of AI. While uncertainty remains, it, along with recessionary concerns continue to moderate. Still, dialogue around the prospect of reaccelerating inflation, prolonged geopolitical conflict, and a dynamic macro environment is keeping exuberance in check. While those expecting worsening economic conditions in the U.S. has pulled back to its lowest level in over two years, 2024 GDP expectations moderated QoQ. As the market recalibrates from the hotter-than-expected CPI prints and an elusive rate cut schedule in 2024, leading topics for executives to address on upcoming earnings calls include profitability and expense management, demand, and, new this quarter, artificial intelligence.”
“With recent Fed commentary easing interest rate tensions and investor expectations of a recession moderating, the New Year has brought with it a spoonful of optimism from the investment community — the extent of which we haven’t seen since December 2021. Indeed, the potential for rate cuts in 2024, coupled with better-than-expected consumer resiliency and steady job reports thus far, have catapulted equity and bond markets higher off October lows. But to be clear, we are not out of the woods yet. Perhaps the medicine that is needed is what are likely to be conservative guides crossing the airwaves this quarter, as executives hedge The Street’s optimism against the potential risks of the current operating environment we find ourselves in — namely, slowing growth, global macro uncertainty, particularly in China, and geopolitical risk contagion, which seems to be manifesting weekly. With notably fewer investors expecting a broad-based recession and the majority anticipating that annual guides will be higher than 2023 actuals, focus will be on 2024 outlooks and company positioning. Have we bottomed is the question and it’s critical that executives embrace candor and conservativeness amid continued heightened uncertainty, while also setting the stage for continued growth execution. Capital markets are opening up and deals, specifically megamergers and divestitures, are popping — 2024 is shaping up to be a business transformation-oriented year.”
“Annual top- and bottom-line guides were broadly raised following better-than-expected second quarter results, and, along with them, consensus estimates. For the upcoming quarter, some of the issues to watch remain the same — namely, persistent inflation, waning demand and pricing power amid elongated purchasing patterns, and margin and expense management. However, what we see in our proprietary data is that geopolitical risk now dominates mindshare, escalating to 71% expressing this as a concern from just 34% last quarter— and that was before the events of the past week in the Middle East. All the while, consumer metrics continue to deteriorate at the margin, with the knock-on effects of student loan resumption on the horizon. Still, even with some of the more pervasive economic and geopolitical factors impacting near-term sentiment, there are also continued pockets of strength and optimism that collectively contribute to an increasingly neutral stance. Technology and innovation — including the promise of AI — along with secular growth trends such as the energy transition and government infrastructure spending have padded outright bearish investor sentiment for now. With a little less than three months to go to close out this year, analyst and investor questions will jump to 2024 and those eager attempts should be thoughtfully redirected given increased uncertainty and economic landscape churn. Our results show investors are most interested in the bottom-line at this time, and reinforcing the long-term growth strategy and near-term plans to preserve profitability will serve to bolster investor confidence.”
“We’re at an interesting juncture as we head into the Q2 earnings season. Q1 performances and persistent executive talk of second-half strength boosted confidence and gave the markets a new lease on life after a year of downshifting in 2022. At the same time, concerns about rising interest rates are proliferating, recessionary fears persisting, and management tone — heard as more upbeat last quarter — has tempered. With valuations at these levels, the market is primed more for perfection than not. Even with the obvious risk factors out there, including the continued inversion of the yield curve and its lingering potential implications for the banking sector and broader economy, along with diverging consumer credit and savings, there are some bright spots. Despite cost cutting actions, companies continue to reinvest at relatively high levels and while concerns over a “white collar recession” emerge with mounting reports of layoffs, the consumer continues to spend amid still-strong employment trends. With microcycles becoming more in focus, companies have the ability to demonstrate differentiation. Reinforcing strategy and execution in support of long-term growth, addressing near-term actions to protect profitability and managing expectations at this hairpin turn will serve to build management credibility.”
“After several quarters of gradually rising optimism, in part spurred by the political clarity obtained in November and resultant optimism for accelerated growth in 2025, our survey identifies a U-turn in industrial investor sentiment — not just in the near term, but also for growth prospects for the remainder of the year. As we enter Q1 earnings season, it’s evident that tariffs and trade policy uncertainties have deeply impacted investor focus, and headline risks are resulting in a pullback in confidence across the sector. Growth forecasts for 2025 have shifted downward and outward, and nearly twice as many investors now emphasize margins over growth. While Q1 industrial prints are forecasted to be stable, investors are expecting executives to provide a look behind the curtain on demand trends, updates on customer interactions, and vulnerabilities in areas such as supply chain dynamics, rare-earth commodity inputs, and scenario planning. Notably, we may be in for a choppy few quarters of misaligned company reality and investor perception, as tariff and derivative economic growth impacts wend their way through the system, muddied by pull-forward demand trends. What companies aren’t experiencing or fully seeing will not be reported in financials nor guidance, respectively, potentially setting investors up for a false sense of security in the near term based on the timing of effects. Transparency and conservatism will be critical to managing investor expectations and avoiding a future snap back when U.S. Administration actions to date touch down.”
“Fourth quarter results are anticipated to largely be in line sequentially and with consensus, albeit better year-over-year, amid views of muted demand during the period, but Industrial investors are already looking ahead to 2025 with increasing optimism and a sharpened focus on growth opportunities. Despite emerging and persistent challenges such as tariffs, inflation, and policy uncertainties, confidence is building around stronger annual guidance for both revenue and earnings. Reinvestment remains the leading preferred use of cash, now just two points shy and within striking distance of its 5-year high in mid-2021, with appetites for M&A growing and eclipsing debt reduction as investors pivot toward strategies for long-term, sustainable growth. Pace of growth, however, remains the sector’s biggest question mark, with investors keenly focused on whether corporate realities — and forecasts — can keep pace with elevated annual expectations. Tariff uncertainty will remain a limiting factor.”
“With Industrial earnings on the horizon, our survey this quarter identifies growing unease toward second half results, continuing a meaningful downshift in sentiment revealed last quarter. Investor bearishness hit its highest level since December 2022, and executive tone is also characterized as the most downbeat in nearly two years, with expectations for broad-based earnings misses and downward guidance revisions. As a result, margins and balance sheet strength remain en vogue as industrial weakness persists, albeit at lower perceived levels. Notably, optimism is building for 2025, as industrial investors anticipate global capex to strengthen post-U.S. election, short-cycle order rates to accelerate over the next six months, and Global PMI to also improve over the same timeframe. While AI and infrastructure see support, our channel checks indicate optimism for a recovery may be building prematurely. Topics of focus for earnings calls include demand and order rate trends, margins and pricing, disinflation, labor trends, and capital deployment.”
“With Industrial earnings on the horizon, our survey this quarter identifies growing investor unease and a meaningful downshift in sentiment following outsized optimism captured last quarter. Investor views and executive tone are now categorized as decidedly neutral amid escalating concerns over a sector-wide slowdown, with the level of bullishness captured at a 20-quarter low. Increasing apprehension over top- and bottom-line performances, compounded by heightened geopolitical concerns, have culminated in muted outlooks across nearly all Industrial sub-sectors that we track. Despite resurfacing concerns over growth and margins and a flurry of notable pre-announcements, expectations for Q2’24 results remain largely intact, with views that prints will be in line with both last quarter and consensus and that annual outlooks will hold. While bullish sentiment has come in based on deteriorating macro views, we foresee the potential for a higher number of companies to lower guidance than is currently expected amid signs of emerging supply chain and other operational issues, including labor productivity, as well as the continued impact of U.S. election uncertainty on customer spending. Leading topics of interest for earnings calls include margins and pricing power, order rate trends, and back half growth.”
“Persistently high investor expectations for broad-based Industrial weakness have been slashed in half and replaced with increasing optimism after a challenging stretch of inventory destocking, which was first identified as a concern in our Q3’22 survey. Investors describing their own outlook and executive tone as positive experience meaningful surges amid anticipation of a strong first quarter and signs that orders, especially for short-cycle products, are beginning to germinate. Reflecting this rising tide, views on capital allocation continue to prioritize growth with reinvestment cited as the leading preference, followed by M&A, which sees increased support for the third consecutive quarter. However, despite rosier attitudes overall, the lion’s share of investors expects executives to hold annual guides firm this quarter, while leading topics for earnings calls include demand and order rate trends, margins and pricing power, and inflation, which garnered a step-up in attention this survey. While our channel checks indicate stabilization versus continued deceleration is occurring in pockets across Industrial sub-sectors, investor sentiment at these levels could be slightly ahead of company reality and proactive expectations management will be an important element of earnings calls this quarter.”
“Expectations for broad-based industrial weakness is a prominent theme throughout our survey, resulting in investors continuing to prioritize margins at higher levels than growth at this time. However, despite this acute focus on profitability, expectations for a lower interest rate environment have spurred notable appetite for growth initiatives, including a spike in support for reinvestment via growth capex and M&A. Notably, appetite for bolt-ons is meaningfully higher and tepidness toward large, transformational deals, sees a step back. While Q4 KPI performances are expected to be mixed, with margin growth a big question mark as destocking continues and pricing power wanes, most anticipate higher full-year guides relative to 2023 actuals — an indication of soft-landing expectations. Leading topics for executives to address on upcoming earnings calls include updates on demand and order trends, margins/pricing power, and, new this quarter, regional dynamics as macro/geopolitical conditions intensify globally. Our findings indicate investors are seeking strong secular growth attachment and diversified portfolios. China remains out of favor and an overhang for companies with exposure.”
“Following Q2, where results largely surprised to the upside and many companies raised 2023 guides, sentiment this survey captures softening pessimism in the near term, but growing concern in the longer term, as evidenced by a more upbeat 2023 Industrial Organic Growth expectation of 5.3%, an increase of 150 basis points QoQ, and 96% already seeing or anticipating that industrial growth is slowing and will continue to do so into 2024. Demand is the leading identified concern for the second consecutive quarter as caution over destocking grows, followed by interest rates, as ‘higher for longer’ will put added upward pressure on the cost of capital and temper the appetite for capex spend. Amid this backdrop and with the run-up that Industrials have seen this year, valuations are described as ‘extremely rich’ in general. Leading topics for executives to address on upcoming earnings calls include updates on inflation and pricing power, demand, and related inventory and destocking trends, and margins, which 68% of surveyed investment professionals report prioritizing over growth at this time.”
“Industrial investors largely expect to see improvement across all KPIs in the second quarter, specifically revenue, margins, EPS, and FCF, with views bolstered by what is perceived as increasingly more positive executive tone. Despite the largely optimistic view on Q2 industrial prints, the majority of survey respondents anticipate companies will maintain annual guides, reflecting investor angst about the second half and continued slowing industrial growth. Still, focus remains on long term positioning with increasing support for reinvestment and bolt-on acquisitions. Outsized FCF generation and above-market growth remain the most compelling investment themes while margin expansion comes in third with the largest increase in support. Meaningful shifts in input costs, slower than expected economic uptake in China, uncertainty around inventory and destocking actions, and a higher interest rate environment have created a lot of complexity. Leading topics for executives to address on calls this earnings season include demand and order trends, which also register as the top concerns this survey, margins and input costs, pricing power, and capital allocation priorities in the current environment.”
Earnings Primer®
Q1'25
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“Time and time again, our research has conclusively linked transparency with management credibility, and the power of transparency is never more important than during times of radical uncertainty and market distress. Massive market swings, extreme volatility, and minute-by-minute tariff headline changes have dealt public company management teams yet another set of challenges to navigate. Executives who lean into educating investors on their company in the context of the current framework and long-term fundamentals, while remaining thoughtful about near-term uncertainty, will serve to build trust. Importantly, investors are not expecting companies to be prescriptive, conclusive, or have all the answers; rather, they are seeking executives’ best efforts to help them understand actual and highly likely impacts and strategies to mitigate risk. While the 90-day reprieve on reciprocal tariffs excluding China is welcomed, it serves to extend uncertainty in the increasingly psychologically unsafe environment in which we’re currently operating. Those companies that will emerge stronger from this period will demonstrate the ability to control the controllable, execute with agility in the near term while not losing sight of advancing the long-term strategy, communicate honestly and straightforwardly, and bring investors along with them. Proactive disclosure of the impacts to cost, revenue, and/or margins, tariff mitigation strategies, including pricing actions and cost savings to offset impacts, downturn playbooks, and scenario analyses are proven communication strategies that build credibility with investors.”
Q4'24
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“Following the election-cycle overhang and the bull-bear standoff identified in Q3, our latest survey highlights a spike in investor optimism. Recession apprehension has diminished significantly, GDP projections have warmed, and ‘growth mode’ has emerged as a dominant theme, with growth taking priority over margins and reinvestment dethroning debt paydown as the top preferred use of cash after 10 consecutive quarters. However, uncertainties — including policy shifts linked to tariffs and renewed inflationary concerns — are top of mind and keeping a lid on unbridled enthusiasm. Amid lofty expectations for revenue and EPS for both Q4 results and annual guides, our channel checks suggest demand is not yet tracking with sentiment, putting companies in a potential pickle as they look to issue annual guides in the coming weeks and months. While animal spirits are aswirl, we recommend conservatism when it comes to 2025 outlooks, including leveraging wider ranges to account for uncertainty and volatility amid the administration changeover. For this earnings season, investors remain keyed into growth and demand, as well as margins and expense management, while capital allocation and tariffs both see boosts in interest.”
Q3'24
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“Following Q2 earnings season, which saw a higher-than-expected number of EPS misses and downwardly revised guides, our survey this quarter reveals heightened concerns around growth and earnings with a greater emphasis on margins. Channel checks indicate continued subdued demand in Q3 amid the looming U.S. Election and an increasingly strapped consumer, while AI, infrastructure stimulus, and cooling inflation offer support. While surveyed investors anticipate a choppy Q3 with more bracing for EPS misses and another round of lowered guides, continued election-induced paralysis and recent events, including the short-lived but stymying port strike, devastation caused by Hurricanes Helene and Milton, and Middle East war escalation are likely to factor into Q4 outlooks. Despite the two largest global economies getting a shot in the arm with the U.S. Fed’s 50 bps rate cut and China’s stimulus efforts, there is an increasing level of pessimism as we round out 2024. As investors sift through the increasingly turbulent landscape, focus remains on demand and order rates, expense management, and disinflation trends while interest in corporate downturn playbooks spikes.”
Q2'24
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“With earnings season about to commence, our survey finds sentiment has moderated from the overly zealous bullish stance captured over the prior two quarters, with investors characterizing their view as more neutral overall. The frothy growth expectations abundant in the beginning of the year are fizzling amid renewed concerns about a potential U.S. recession and escalating political uncertainty, both in the U.S. and globally, and a beleaguered consumer. Despite tempering optimism, expectations for Q2’24 results and annual outlooks largely remain intact, underscoring a potential underappreciation for known and emerging headwinds, including the impacts of the higher interest rate environment, the pall cast on spending amid an election year, an increasingly challenged pricing environment, and the resurgence of supply chain issues. In addition to these, leading topics for executives to address on upcoming earnings calls include profitability and expense management, growth, and, of growing importance this quarter, capex and investment priorities. As companies mull over guidance strategy, consideration should be given to derisking the potential for earnings misses through proactive expectations management. With elevated consensus estimates and the ‘back-half loaded’ narrative showing cracks, it’s important to keep in mind the compounding effects of the higher interest rate environment, slowing growth, broad-based cost-cutting efforts, and moderating capex brought on by increasing uncertainty over the U.S. election.”
Q1'24
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“With earnings season about to commence, our survey finds increasing optimism amongst the investment community amid the growing belief that we bottomed in 2023 and that, despite sticky inflation and a higher-for-longer interest rate environment, 2024 will offer year-over-year improvement. Supporting expanding positive sentiment is increased executive confidence, a U.S. election year, and durable secular growth trends, including continued government spending and the proliferation of AI. While uncertainty remains, it, along with recessionary concerns continue to moderate. Still, dialogue around the prospect of reaccelerating inflation, prolonged geopolitical conflict, and a dynamic macro environment is keeping exuberance in check. While those expecting worsening economic conditions in the U.S. has pulled back to its lowest level in over two years, 2024 GDP expectations moderated QoQ. As the market recalibrates from the hotter-than-expected CPI prints and an elusive rate cut schedule in 2024, leading topics for executives to address on upcoming earnings calls include profitability and expense management, demand, and, new this quarter, artificial intelligence.”
Q4'23
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“With recent Fed commentary easing interest rate tensions and investor expectations of a recession moderating, the New Year has brought with it a spoonful of optimism from the investment community — the extent of which we haven’t seen since December 2021. Indeed, the potential for rate cuts in 2024, coupled with better-than-expected consumer resiliency and steady job reports thus far, have catapulted equity and bond markets higher off October lows. But to be clear, we are not out of the woods yet. Perhaps the medicine that is needed is what are likely to be conservative guides crossing the airwaves this quarter, as executives hedge The Street’s optimism against the potential risks of the current operating environment we find ourselves in — namely, slowing growth, global macro uncertainty, particularly in China, and geopolitical risk contagion, which seems to be manifesting weekly. With notably fewer investors expecting a broad-based recession and the majority anticipating that annual guides will be higher than 2023 actuals, focus will be on 2024 outlooks and company positioning. Have we bottomed is the question and it’s critical that executives embrace candor and conservativeness amid continued heightened uncertainty, while also setting the stage for continued growth execution. Capital markets are opening up and deals, specifically megamergers and divestitures, are popping — 2024 is shaping up to be a business transformation-oriented year.”
Q3'23
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“Annual top- and bottom-line guides were broadly raised following better-than-expected second quarter results, and, along with them, consensus estimates. For the upcoming quarter, some of the issues to watch remain the same — namely, persistent inflation, waning demand and pricing power amid elongated purchasing patterns, and margin and expense management. However, what we see in our proprietary data is that geopolitical risk now dominates mindshare, escalating to 71% expressing this as a concern from just 34% last quarter— and that was before the events of the past week in the Middle East. All the while, consumer metrics continue to deteriorate at the margin, with the knock-on effects of student loan resumption on the horizon. Still, even with some of the more pervasive economic and geopolitical factors impacting near-term sentiment, there are also continued pockets of strength and optimism that collectively contribute to an increasingly neutral stance. Technology and innovation — including the promise of AI — along with secular growth trends such as the energy transition and government infrastructure spending have padded outright bearish investor sentiment for now. With a little less than three months to go to close out this year, analyst and investor questions will jump to 2024 and those eager attempts should be thoughtfully redirected given increased uncertainty and economic landscape churn. Our results show investors are most interested in the bottom-line at this time, and reinforcing the long-term growth strategy and near-term plans to preserve profitability will serve to bolster investor confidence.”
Q2'23
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“We’re at an interesting juncture as we head into the Q2 earnings season. Q1 performances and persistent executive talk of second-half strength boosted confidence and gave the markets a new lease on life after a year of downshifting in 2022. At the same time, concerns about rising interest rates are proliferating, recessionary fears persisting, and management tone — heard as more upbeat last quarter — has tempered. With valuations at these levels, the market is primed more for perfection than not. Even with the obvious risk factors out there, including the continued inversion of the yield curve and its lingering potential implications for the banking sector and broader economy, along with diverging consumer credit and savings, there are some bright spots. Despite cost cutting actions, companies continue to reinvest at relatively high levels and while concerns over a “white collar recession” emerge with mounting reports of layoffs, the consumer continues to spend amid still-strong employment trends. With microcycles becoming more in focus, companies have the ability to demonstrate differentiation. Reinforcing strategy and execution in support of long-term growth, addressing near-term actions to protect profitability and managing expectations at this hairpin turn will serve to build management credibility.”
Industrial Sentiment Survey®
Q1'25
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“After several quarters of gradually rising optimism, in part spurred by the political clarity obtained in November and resultant optimism for accelerated growth in 2025, our survey identifies a U-turn in industrial investor sentiment — not just in the near term, but also for growth prospects for the remainder of the year. As we enter Q1 earnings season, it’s evident that tariffs and trade policy uncertainties have deeply impacted investor focus, and headline risks are resulting in a pullback in confidence across the sector. Growth forecasts for 2025 have shifted downward and outward, and nearly twice as many investors now emphasize margins over growth. While Q1 industrial prints are forecasted to be stable, investors are expecting executives to provide a look behind the curtain on demand trends, updates on customer interactions, and vulnerabilities in areas such as supply chain dynamics, rare-earth commodity inputs, and scenario planning. Notably, we may be in for a choppy few quarters of misaligned company reality and investor perception, as tariff and derivative economic growth impacts wend their way through the system, muddied by pull-forward demand trends. What companies aren’t experiencing or fully seeing will not be reported in financials nor guidance, respectively, potentially setting investors up for a false sense of security in the near term based on the timing of effects. Transparency and conservatism will be critical to managing investor expectations and avoiding a future snap back when U.S. Administration actions to date touch down.”
Q4'24
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“Fourth quarter results are anticipated to largely be in line sequentially and with consensus, albeit better year-over-year, amid views of muted demand during the period, but Industrial investors are already looking ahead to 2025 with increasing optimism and a sharpened focus on growth opportunities. Despite emerging and persistent challenges such as tariffs, inflation, and policy uncertainties, confidence is building around stronger annual guidance for both revenue and earnings. Reinvestment remains the leading preferred use of cash, now just two points shy and within striking distance of its 5-year high in mid-2021, with appetites for M&A growing and eclipsing debt reduction as investors pivot toward strategies for long-term, sustainable growth. Pace of growth, however, remains the sector’s biggest question mark, with investors keenly focused on whether corporate realities — and forecasts — can keep pace with elevated annual expectations. Tariff uncertainty will remain a limiting factor.”
Q3'24
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“With Industrial earnings on the horizon, our survey this quarter identifies growing unease toward second half results, continuing a meaningful downshift in sentiment revealed last quarter. Investor bearishness hit its highest level since December 2022, and executive tone is also characterized as the most downbeat in nearly two years, with expectations for broad-based earnings misses and downward guidance revisions. As a result, margins and balance sheet strength remain en vogue as industrial weakness persists, albeit at lower perceived levels. Notably, optimism is building for 2025, as industrial investors anticipate global capex to strengthen post-U.S. election, short-cycle order rates to accelerate over the next six months, and Global PMI to also improve over the same timeframe. While AI and infrastructure see support, our channel checks indicate optimism for a recovery may be building prematurely. Topics of focus for earnings calls include demand and order rate trends, margins and pricing, disinflation, labor trends, and capital deployment.”
Q2'24
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“With Industrial earnings on the horizon, our survey this quarter identifies growing investor unease and a meaningful downshift in sentiment following outsized optimism captured last quarter. Investor views and executive tone are now categorized as decidedly neutral amid escalating concerns over a sector-wide slowdown, with the level of bullishness captured at a 20-quarter low. Increasing apprehension over top- and bottom-line performances, compounded by heightened geopolitical concerns, have culminated in muted outlooks across nearly all Industrial sub-sectors that we track. Despite resurfacing concerns over growth and margins and a flurry of notable pre-announcements, expectations for Q2’24 results remain largely intact, with views that prints will be in line with both last quarter and consensus and that annual outlooks will hold. While bullish sentiment has come in based on deteriorating macro views, we foresee the potential for a higher number of companies to lower guidance than is currently expected amid signs of emerging supply chain and other operational issues, including labor productivity, as well as the continued impact of U.S. election uncertainty on customer spending. Leading topics of interest for earnings calls include margins and pricing power, order rate trends, and back half growth.”
Q1'24
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“Persistently high investor expectations for broad-based Industrial weakness have been slashed in half and replaced with increasing optimism after a challenging stretch of inventory destocking, which was first identified as a concern in our Q3’22 survey. Investors describing their own outlook and executive tone as positive experience meaningful surges amid anticipation of a strong first quarter and signs that orders, especially for short-cycle products, are beginning to germinate. Reflecting this rising tide, views on capital allocation continue to prioritize growth with reinvestment cited as the leading preference, followed by M&A, which sees increased support for the third consecutive quarter. However, despite rosier attitudes overall, the lion’s share of investors expects executives to hold annual guides firm this quarter, while leading topics for earnings calls include demand and order rate trends, margins and pricing power, and inflation, which garnered a step-up in attention this survey. While our channel checks indicate stabilization versus continued deceleration is occurring in pockets across Industrial sub-sectors, investor sentiment at these levels could be slightly ahead of company reality and proactive expectations management will be an important element of earnings calls this quarter.”
Q4'23
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“Expectations for broad-based industrial weakness is a prominent theme throughout our survey, resulting in investors continuing to prioritize margins at higher levels than growth at this time. However, despite this acute focus on profitability, expectations for a lower interest rate environment have spurred notable appetite for growth initiatives, including a spike in support for reinvestment via growth capex and M&A. Notably, appetite for bolt-ons is meaningfully higher and tepidness toward large, transformational deals, sees a step back. While Q4 KPI performances are expected to be mixed, with margin growth a big question mark as destocking continues and pricing power wanes, most anticipate higher full-year guides relative to 2023 actuals — an indication of soft-landing expectations. Leading topics for executives to address on upcoming earnings calls include updates on demand and order trends, margins/pricing power, and, new this quarter, regional dynamics as macro/geopolitical conditions intensify globally. Our findings indicate investors are seeking strong secular growth attachment and diversified portfolios. China remains out of favor and an overhang for companies with exposure.”
Q3'23
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“Following Q2, where results largely surprised to the upside and many companies raised 2023 guides, sentiment this survey captures softening pessimism in the near term, but growing concern in the longer term, as evidenced by a more upbeat 2023 Industrial Organic Growth expectation of 5.3%, an increase of 150 basis points QoQ, and 96% already seeing or anticipating that industrial growth is slowing and will continue to do so into 2024. Demand is the leading identified concern for the second consecutive quarter as caution over destocking grows, followed by interest rates, as ‘higher for longer’ will put added upward pressure on the cost of capital and temper the appetite for capex spend. Amid this backdrop and with the run-up that Industrials have seen this year, valuations are described as ‘extremely rich’ in general. Leading topics for executives to address on upcoming earnings calls include updates on inflation and pricing power, demand, and related inventory and destocking trends, and margins, which 68% of surveyed investment professionals report prioritizing over growth at this time.”
Q2'23
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“Industrial investors largely expect to see improvement across all KPIs in the second quarter, specifically revenue, margins, EPS, and FCF, with views bolstered by what is perceived as increasingly more positive executive tone. Despite the largely optimistic view on Q2 industrial prints, the majority of survey respondents anticipate companies will maintain annual guides, reflecting investor angst about the second half and continued slowing industrial growth. Still, focus remains on long term positioning with increasing support for reinvestment and bolt-on acquisitions. Outsized FCF generation and above-market growth remain the most compelling investment themes while margin expansion comes in third with the largest increase in support. Meaningful shifts in input costs, slower than expected economic uptake in China, uncertainty around inventory and destocking actions, and a higher interest rate environment have created a lot of complexity. Leading topics for executives to address on calls this earnings season include demand and order trends, which also register as the top concerns this survey, margins and input costs, pricing power, and capital allocation priorities in the current environment.”
