This Week in Earnings – Q2'25

Cautious Optimism Emerges Despite Challenging Macro Environment and Tepid Consumer Confidence; Some Reinstate FY Guides Pulled in Q1, While Several Continue to Withhold amid Ongoing Tariff Uncertainty

• O’Reilly Automotive ($83.1B, Specialty Retail): “The increase in our guidance range at the top end reflects the potential for incremental benefit we could realize from the effective price management, as we navigate the challenging tariff environment. We have begun to see some incremental benefit filter into our numbers from industry-wide pricing actions spurred by the first round of tariffs. However, in establishing our outlook for the remainder of 2025, we remain cautious as to the uncertainty of the timing, magnitude and ultimate impact of changes in the pricing environment in our industry. We are also cautious concerning the potential adverse impact to consumers and their resulting response in the face of rising prices.”
• Chipotle Mexican Grill ($59.5B, Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure): “Our restaurant teams did an extraordinary job of executing in a challenging environment. While we experienced a slowdown in our underlying trend in May, we did see momentum build as we rolled out our summer marketing initiatives and leaned into hospitality. And exiting the quarter, we returned to a positive comp in transaction trends, which have continued into July. However, considering the ongoing volatility in the consumer environment, we now anticipate comparable sales to be about flat for the full year. As compares ease in the back half of the year, if we could get a little favorability on consumer confidence, which seems to be trending upward in June, July, and then layer in the initiatives that we have in the back half, I have a lot of confidence in the plans we have of getting us back on our front foot very quickly. 2026 is shaping up nicely.”
• Tractor Supply ($31.1B, Specialty Retail): “Despite ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty and a tepid start to spring, our sales performance exceeded our modest expectations. While April was impacted by wet weather and a slow seasonal start, May and June delivered comp sales above the quarterly average, with June marking our strongest comp month of the quarter. We are pleased with the momentum exiting Q2. We recognize the uncertainty that remains from macroeconomic pressures to evolving tariffs. Given our performance year-to-date and our outlook for the balance of the year, we are reconfirming our guidance for 2025. In addition, [product mix] in the second half creates less reliance on big ticket sales. These factors give us cautious optimism as we move into the back half of the year.”
• PulteGroup ($23.1B, Household Durables): “Our results demonstrate that in an operating environment that has grown more challenging, our diversified and balanced operating model offers strategic benefits to help sustain performance. Over the past few quarters, our industry has routinely referenced demand conditions being volatile, and that remains the most accurate description of buyer activity in the first and second quarters…we do see days of strong demand, followed by days displaying a step-down in sign-up activity.”
• Levi Strauss ($8.1B, Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods): “As we look to the remainder of the year, we are closely monitoring the evolving tariff dynamics in addition to consumer confidence and behavior. Given the upside in the first half of the year, continued strong execution and momentum in our business, we are raising our top- and bottom-line guidance. While there’s still uncertainty on the macro, largely driven by tariffs, we are in a good position to mitigate the adverse impact given our brand, product, and profitability momentum.”
• Royal Caribbean ($90.8B, Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure): “Our Q2 results exceeded expectations. We are also increasing our earnings guidance for the year, and 2025 is on track to be another record year. Bookings have accelerated since the last earnings call, particularly for close-in sailings. We continue to see engaged and excited consumers with roughly 75% intending to spend the same or more on leisure travel over the next 12 months. At the same time, more than half of consumers tell us they are booking closer to their departure date than they used to. And for the people who intend to travel over the next 12 months, the majority have not yet booked.”
• Genuine Parts ($18.6B, Distributors): “We’re operating in an environment that has presented several challenges, including enacted tariffs and ongoing trade uncertainty, along with high interest rates and a cautious end consumer. That said, we remain cautiously optimistic on market improvement in the back half relative to last year, but likely with a slower pacing versus when we first gave our outlook back in February, which requires us to update [lower] the outlook.”
• Hasbro ($10.5B, Leisure Products): “We delivered a strong Q2, outperforming expectations on revenue, profit and margin all while navigating a dynamic external environment. Based on our strong first half and improved visibility into the back half, we are raising full year guidance.“
• Wyndham Hotels & Resorts ($6.9B, Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure): “We are reaffirming our expectation that full year. As we shared last quarter, we purposefully set a wider range to account for ongoing volatility and uneven demand across markets, and we continue to believe that range remains appropriate Should we see a near-term resolution to global trade tensions, consumer sentiment and demand could recover as quickly as it softened. And with our largest volume months still ahead, we believe this outlook reflects the range of potential outcomes in today’s environment.”
• Brunswick ($4.0B, Leisure Products): “Looking at external factors, we see some areas of continued uncertainty, but also some emerging bright spots compared with Q1. Overall, while we remain mindful of the dynamic macroeconomic backdrop and soft consumer sentiment, there are some reasons for cautious optimismas we progress through early Q3.”

Spotlight on Select Companies that Pulled FY Guidance Last Quarter

• Ford Motor ($44.1B, Automobiles): “Our updated guidance reflects a strong underlying first half performance across our three automotive segments and Ford Credit, including our continued improvement in cost. Our full year outlook assumes a net tariff headwind of about $2B, reflecting approximately $3B of adverse gross adjusted EBIT impact, offset partially by $1B of recovery actions. Given the potential range of outcomes related to how the net tariff headwind will play out by segment, we’re only providing a total company outlook for the remainder of the year.”
• Mattel ($5.6B, Leisure Products): “While there is still volatility due to the global trade environment impacting the U.S. and uncertainty regarding consumer demand in the back half of the year, we are resuming guidance and have updated our outlook for the full year 2025. The industry has momentum entering the second half. We are seeing more certainty. As retailers have more certainty and more visibility into their activities, they are adapting their ordering patterns as well. We lowered the bottom end of our top line guidance, so that has a flow-through impact to the bottom line. You’re also going to see the impact of tariffs flowing through the P&L in the second half. Against this, we have implemented a variety of actions that will help us withstand some of those headwinds.”
• Lear ($5.1B, Automobile Components):“On our Q1 earnings call, we withdrew our 2025 outlook due to significant uncertainty caused by the ongoing international trade negotiations. Over the last few months, industry conditions have somewhat stabilized, allowing us to restore our full year guidance. Our revenue is now expected to be 2% higher than our previous guidance. Core operating earnings are expected to be approximately $20M lower.”
• Deckers Outdoor ($17.5B, Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods): “Deckers again delivered another quarter of strong results that came in above our expectations. Given the continued macroeconomic uncertainty related to the global trade policy and difficulty predicting impact on the consumer environment, we are not providing a formal outlook for fiscal year 2026. In terms of how we’re looking at reinstating full year guidance, our intention is to get there. Right now, we’re still looking for greater clarity around the [tariff rates] applied to various countries. We’re also looking at how consumers begin to react to the tariffs. We will likely start to see that in the second half.”
• Polaris ($3.2B, Leisure Products): “We’ve exceeded expectations for the quarter, gained share across our business, and mitigated a portion of the tariff impacts. I’m more confident than ever that we’ll emerge from this cycle stronger because the team is focused and executing on what we can control. Our decision today to not reinstate full year guidance stems from the fact that there remains an abundance of uncertainty around tariffs and the potential impact on consumer spending. We continue to actively monitor developments and will reevaluate our decision on providing full year guidance once we have greater clarity.”
• Harley-Davidson ($2.8B, Automobiles): “Given that the global tariff situation remains ongoing and uncertain, we continue to withhold our full year 2025 financial outlook for HDMC and HDI.”
• Steven Madden ($2.0B, Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods): “Q2 was extremely challenging, driven largely by the impact of new tariffs on goods imported into the U.S. Our team moved swiftly to adapt to the changing landscape, sharply diversified our sourcing out of China, negotiating meaningful discounts with suppliers and implementing surgical price increases. That said, wholesale customers canceled orders and reduced open-to-buys. Shipment delays led to lost sales and pushed deliveries to later periods, and organic gross margins declined due to the significant increase in our landed costs, resulting in substantial pressure on both revenue and earnings. Due to the continued uncertainty related to the impact of new tariffs on goods imported into the U.S., we will not be providing 2025 financial guidance at this time.”