News

Overall U.S. Big Bank commentary reflects optimism toward the year ahead and the potential to build on solid momentum seen post-election, though enthusiasm remains somewhat tempered by ongoing geopolitical risks and unknowns around how policy will unfold under a Trump 2.0 administration. As observed in our Q4’24 Inside The Buy-Side® Earnings Primer®, the heightened election uncertainty that prevailed in the Fall has been replaced by policy uncertainty.

Overall U.S. Bank commentary is more upbeat than expected on a resilient economy, but executives remain guarded in their comments around the road ahead given ongoing risks with heightened geopolitical turmoil and an uncertain U.S. political landscape as we march toward the November U.S. presidential election.

While overall U.S. Bank performances were largely in the black, executives refrained from declaring a definitive turnaround. Many injected a sense of caution in their macroeconomic commentaries, commensurate with our observations from our prior Commencing the Quarter Thought Leadership report. Still, increased confidence amid continued capital market strength and percolating M&A deal activity is notable.

While overall Bank positioning paints the picture of increasing optimism, there remains a continued dosage of caution, and many executives were careful to call an outright turnaround in conditions just yet. But, when we assess tone quarter-to-quarter, it continues to inflect more positively… another sign that 2024 is starting off strong.

Financials were dealt an interesting hand over the past year, which led to a lot of consternation among investors and corporate executives about the economy in 2023.

No matter what happens, it is increasingly clear that guiding the Street for 2024 will be a larger-than-normal challenge for many companies — especially for the Banks.

Conservatism will again be the strategy and as we have consistently shared with our clients since Q3 2021, bullish on our company, not on the macro!