As 2024 comes in focus, we will see another batch of conservative annual outlooks, which will serve to calibrate expectations and further support the decoupling of the macro from the markets. Next year will be dynamics for many reasons, but mainly because we have a U.S. Presidential Election, which is sure to influence sentiment and spending behavior.
The markets welcomed a pause in interest rate hikes after the Fed’s Wednesday briefing, but the net effect of higher-for-longer rates on the consumer is anything but reason to celebrate.
We expect the next few quarters will be very telling, particularly as consumers drift through the holiday season and executives prepare to provide their 2024 outlooks. Indeed, with less than two months remaining in 2023, investor attention is increasingly focused on expectations for next year.
Earnings season is moving fast and furious with the latest batch of results and guides indicating more pronounced weakness than what the markets were expecting and certainly relative to the strong Q2 GDP print published this week.
No matter what happens, it is increasingly clear that guiding the Street for 2024 will be a larger-than-normal challenge for many companies — especially for the Banks.
Conservatism will again be the strategy and as we have consistently shared with our clients since Q3 2021, bullish on our company, not on the macro!
We hope you find our primary research timely, informative, and actionable, beginning with today’s “Commencing the Quarter” and throughout the Q3 2023 earnings season as we report on updates and emerging trends.
There is little question that the consumer has held up better than most feared entering 2023. As a result, many of the companies in the consumer sector that have reported thus far have been able to navigate this environment due to conservative assumptions heading into the year.
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